Economic benefits of ENSO information in crop management decisions: case study of rice farming in West Java, Indonesia

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly influences rainfall extremes in Indonesia with major impacts on droughts and floods and potential consequences for rice production. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is an indicator used to detect the occurrence of ENSO events. A consistently negative (phase 1) and a rapidly falling SOI (phase 3) (indicating an El Niño cycle) were related to high probability of below-average rainfalls in the Ciparay and Bojongsoang areas of Bandung District. Therefore, the use of SOI phase information prior to the planting season would assist farmers in making optimum planting decisions. This study attempted to evaluate the economic benefits of using SOI phase information in March/April to make informed agricultural decisions for the second crop planting (April/May). The use of the SOI phases in conjunction with a crop simulation model would facilitate an objective evaluation of other cropping options. The results indicated that farmers who switched from rice to soybean or maize for the May planting season, following the March/April SOI phase I and III, earned higher incomes. The cumulative net income differences over the 63 years for soybean was about USD 1700 (27% higher at Ciparay) and USD 2350 (45% higher at Bojongsoang) and for maize was about USD 1524 (19% higher at Ciparay) and USD 1970 (35% higher at Bojongsoang).