Greenhouse gas emissions and the role of the Kyoto Protocol

Our study empirically investigates the effects of the Kyoto Protocol’s quantified emission limitation or reduction commitments on various greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and other greenhouse gases consisting of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). These GHG emissions are considered to be the main source of global warming issues, and 39 countries approved to meet the commitments by ratifying the Kyoto Protocol. Our empirical analysis is based on the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model, the stochastic version of the IPAT model, using the data of 119 countries from 1990 to 2005. Our main findings are that the effects of the commitments to the Kyoto Protocol are (1) significantly negative for the cases of CO2and CH4emissions, (2) not significant for the case of N2O emissions, and (3) significantly positive for the case of other greenhouse gas emissions. These results have important policy implications for global warming issues. © 2012, Springer.