Hardship at birth alters the impact of climate change on a long-lived predator

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作者
Fabrizio Sergio
Giacomo Tavecchia
Julio Blas
Alessandro Tanferna
Fernando Hiraldo
Erkki Korpimaki
Steven R. Beissinger
机构
[1] Estación Biológica de Doñana - CSIC,Department of Conservation Biology
[2] Institute for Mediterranean Studies (IMEDEA),Population Ecology Group
[3] CSIC-UIB,Section of Ecology, Department of Biology
[4] University of Turku,Department of Environmental Science, Policy & Management
[5] University of California,Museum of Vertebrate Zoology
[6] University of California,undefined
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Nature Communications | / 13卷
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摘要
Climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme events, such as droughts or hurricanes, with substantial impacts on human and wildlife communities. Extreme events can affect individuals through two pathways: by altering the fitness of adults encountering a current extreme, and by affecting the development of individuals born during a natal extreme, a largely overlooked process. Here, we show that the impact of natal drought on an avian predator overrode the effect of current drought for decades, so that individuals born during drought were disadvantaged throughout life. Incorporation of natal effects caused a 40% decline in forecasted population size and a 21% shortening of time to extinction. These results imply that climate change may erode populations more quickly and severely than currently appreciated, suggesting the urgency to incorporate “penalties” for natal legacies in the analytical toolkit of impact forecasts. Similar double impacts may apply to other drivers of global change.
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