Land-use changes and ecosystem services under different scenarios in Nansi Lake Basin, China

Ecosystem services (ESs) have been affected drastically by rapid urban sprawl and significant land-use changes (LUC) in Nansi Lake Basin (NLB) in China. Based on land-use data with a 30-m resolution from 1990 to 2015, we analyzed the process of LUC by atlas analysis and explored the impacts of LUC on ecological service value (ESV) under urban sprawl. The results showed that water area and buildup land increased significantly from 1990 to 2015. The area of cultivated land, forests, grassland, and unutilized land decreased. Land transfer mainly occurred between cultivated land, water area, and grassland. The total amount of land transfer was 4830.64 km2, and the average transfer rate is 185.79 km2/year in 26 years. The most obvious transfer occurred in period IV. The increased buildup land was mainly transferred from cultivated land. The total urban sprawl in the NLB was 1623.37 km2 in the past 26 years, with an average expansion rate of 62.44 km2/year, with the fastest sprawl in period IV. Tengzhou city was the most prominent area of expansion. Its ESV increased by 5.73 × 107 US$ with an increased rate of 2.21 × 106 US$/year. The annual total value of regulating and supporting services in the first-level ESs in the NLB accounted for 54.8 and 25.2% of the total ESV in all years, which were the primary types of ESs. Water area, forests, and cultivated land were the principal contributors to ESV changes. In conclusion, urban sprawl had a significant negative effect on ESV changes. Urban sprawl, water area, forests, and cultivated land were all sensitive factors for ESV changes.