The effect of a positive policy integration on agriculture and climate change adaptation in ECOWAS

Background: The place of agriculture in the economic development process has long been the subject of much criticism. If the authors are unanimous that agriculture contributes to the development of the economy, its role in the growth of other sectors remains unclear. This research examines the contribution of agriculture, industry and services sectors to Gross Domestic Product in Economic Commission of West African States from 1975 to 2014. The study identifies the sector with a greater participation, analyses the robustness of the relationship between the three sectors and discusses the bidirectional causality relationship. Moreover, the interactions between the long-run equilibrium relationships and short-run dynamics are explored through an error correction model. Taking into account climate change, this research establishes by simulation the effect or response to a change in temperature and rainfall on the production of agricultural sector under the assumption of a positive policy integration of Economic Commission of West African States. Results: The causality links between the three sectors are different among countries. Agriculture causes other sectors in some countries, while it is industry or services in other countries. The long-term equilibrium shows that the contribution of agriculture is predominant in Burkina Faso, Gambia and Nigeria. Countries such as Benin, Ghana, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Guinea have a comparative advantage in industry. The simulation confirms the benefits of a positive policy integration in agriculture sector. Indeed, in the scenario of a positive policy integration, the effect of climate change through changes in temperature and rainfall is neutral and without consequences on agriculture per capita income. Conclusion: The implementation of a special program is suggested for each country group based on their comparative advantage. A program between similar countries can be a coping strategy. Positive policy integration is fundamental to reduce the harmful effect of climate change. © 2017 The Author(s).