Affective Forecasts for the Experience Itself: An Investigation of the Impact Bias during an Affective Experience

Research documents that forecasts about the emotional consequences of decisions are prone to error. However, there is relatively little known about affective forecasts regarding engaging in activities (versus about the consequences of decisions or outcomes). Here, we examined affective forecasting in the context of a trail race, hypothesizing that forecasts about engaging in an activity (i.e., running the race) were more accurate than forecasts about completing it (i.e., finishing the race). We also investigated whether forecasting accuracy differed for the valence and arousal dimensions of affect and among different discrete emotions. Results of the within-person study showed that affective forecasts largely were inaccurate in reference to engaging in the activity and completing it. Accuracy varied between valence and arousal as well as among emotions of a given valence.