Analyzing the spatial patterns and drivers of ecosystem services in rapidly urbanizing Taihu Lake Basin of China

Quantifying and mapping the distribution patterns of ecosystem services can help to ascertain which services should be protected and where investments should be directed to improve synergies and reduce tradeoffs. Moreover, the indicators of urbanization that affect the provision of ecosystem services must be identified to determine which approach to adopt in formulating policies related to these services. This paper presents a case study that maps the distribution of multiple ecosystem services and analyzes the ways in which they interact. The relationship between the supply of ecosystem services and the socio-economic development in the Taihu Lake Basin of eastern China is also revealed. Results show a significant negative relationship between crop production and tourism income (p<0.005) and a positive relationship between crop production, nutrient retention, and carbon sequestration (p<0.005). The negative effects of the urbanization process on providing and regulating services are also identified through a comparison of the ecosystem services in large and small cities. Regression analysis was used to compare and elucidate the relative significance of the selected urbanization factors to ecosystem services. The results indicate that urbanization level is the most substantial factor inversely correlated with crop production (R2 = 0.414) and nutrient retention services (R2 = 0.572). Population density is the most important factor that negatively affects carbon sequestration (R2 = 0.447). The findings of this study suggest the potential relevance of ecosystem service dynamics to urbanization management and decision making.