Time series analysis of groundwater quality at selected sites of Purba and Paschim Burdwan, West Bengal, India

The Water Quality Index (WQI) is used to monitor the health and usability of a water body. In this study, we aimed to construct time series prediction models using groundwater WQI (GW-WQI) at four sites: IISCO-Asansol, Durgapur Town, Burdwan University, and Burdwan Station. While statistical spatio-temporal analysis has been reported earlier, no time series analysis of the data or predictive modelling has been done. Pre-monsoon and post-monsoon physico-chemical data from 2010 to 2022 were obtained from the West Bengal Pollution Control Board website to calculate the GW-WQI. Prediction modelling was performed using R 4.1.3 software. Best fit forecast models were selected to predict future trends of GW-WQI with 80% of the data. Subsequently, the models were validated using R-squared, root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), maximum absolute percentage error (MAPE), and Thiel’s U for the model using 20% of the data. Our results show that GW-WQI was good in pre-monsoon but unfit for drinking in post-monsoon in IISCO-Asansol, Durgapur Town, Burdwan University, and Burdwan Station. Arsenic, fluoride, and mercury were the major contaminants resulting in poor GW-WQI. Seasonal ARIMA was the best model for Burdwan University and IISCO-Asansol, ETS for Durgapur Station, and BaggedARIMA for Burdwan Station. The forecast model for Durgapur and Burdwan Station predicted a sharp increase until 2027 but was fluctuating for IISCO-Asansol and Burdwan University. Thus, GW-WQI is a major problem in the industrial belt of West Bengal that is likely to remain high or worsen in the future.