A multi-source information fusion approach in tunnel collapse risk analysis based on improved Dempster–Shafer evidence theory

The tunneling collapse is the main engineering hazard in the construction of the drilling-and-blasting method. The accurate assessment of the tunneling collapse risk has become a key issue in tunnel construction. As for assessing the tunneling collapse risk and providing basic risk controlling strategies, this research proposes a novel multi-source information fusion approach that combines Bayesian network (BN), cloud model (CM), support vector machine (SVM), Dempster–Shafer (D–S) evidence theory, and Monte Carlo (MC) simulation technique. Those methods (CM, BN, SVM) are used to analyze multi-source information (i.e. statistical data, physical sensors, and expert judgment provided by humans) respectively and construct basic probability assignments (BPAs) of input factors under different risk states. Then, these BPAs will be merged at the decision level to achieve an overall risk evaluation, using an improved D–S evidence theory. The MC technology is proposed to simulate the uncertainty and randomness of data. The novel approach has been successfully applied in the case of the Jinzhupa tunnel of the Pu-Yan Highway (Fujian, China). The results indicate that the developed new multi-source information fusion method is feasible for (a) Fusing multi-source information effectively from different models with a high-risk assessment accuracy of 98.1%; (b) Performing strong robustness to bias, which can achieve acceptable risk assessment accuracy even under a 20% bias; and (c) Exhibiting a more outstanding risk assessment performance (97.9% accuracy) than the single-information model (78.8% accuracy) under a high bias (20%). Since the proposed reliable risk analysis method can efficiently integrate multi-source information with conflicts, uncertainties, and bias, it provides an in-depth analysis of the tunnel collapse and the most critical risk factors, and then appropriate remedial measures can be taken at an early stage.