“Green” economic development in China: quantile regression evidence from the Yangtze River Economic Belt

As China’s economy began transitioning from one focused on high-speed growth to one focusing on high-quality development, sustainable green development has become the main goal pursued by the government. This study empirically measures the marginal impact of per capita GDP, technological innovation level, industrial structure, openness, fiscal decentralization, and urbanization level on per capita wastewater discharge in 11 provinces (cities) along the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) from 2008 to 2018 using a quantile model. The key findings were as follows: (1) factors such as the per capita GDP, industrial structure, foreign direct investment, and urbanization in the YREB significantly increased water resource pollution; (2) the quantile model regression results showed that the relationship between economic growth and ecological pollution followed the so-called environmental Kuznets inverted U-curve. Wastewater discharge per capita was low in areas with low per capita GDP, meaning that the ecological environment in these areas was more fragile and that the environmental pollution costs due to economic growth were therefore relatively much higher in these areas; (3) fiscal decentralization significantly reduced water resource pollution in relatively developed areas although the effects in the relatively developing areas were not significant; and (4) the effects of technological innovation on reducing water resource pollution in the YREB were positive but not very significant. The results also confirmed that traditional patterns of economic growth increased water pollution in the YREB. For this reason, the government needs to urgently improve policies—for example, upgrading economic structures, preventing over-urbanization, speeding up technological innovation, introducing environmentally friendly foreign investment, and providing more rewards to best practitioners of environmental governance—that is conducive to the achievement of green ecological development.