Reliability analysis of a nonlinear rotor/stator contact system in the presence of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty

On the basis of an overview of the global responses of a nonlinear Jeffcott rotor/stator contact model, the system reliability was evaluated subject to mixed aleatory-epistemic uncertainty. We used a likelihood-based approach for reliability modeling and analysis. In the context of uncertainty quantification, some advanced Bayesian techniques were adopted to reduce the computation cost in traditional Monte Carlo method. The parameters’ effects on reliability were studied, incorporating both rotor physical background and inherent uncertain factors. This framework could be applied in the field of industrial manufacturing & mounting, risk assessment, product maintaining and benefit rotary machines from design phase to operation stage.