Analysis of influence mechanism of energy-related carbon emissions in Guangdong: evidence from regional China based on the input-output and structural decomposition analysis

It is important to analyze the influence mechanism of energy-related carbon emissions from a regional perspective to effectively achieve reductions in energy consumption and carbon emissions in China. Based on the “energy-economy-carbon emissions” hybrid input-output analysis framework, this study conducted structural decomposition analysis (SDA) on carbon emissions influencing factors in Guangdong Province. Systems-based examination of direct and indirect drivers for regional emission is presented. (1) Direct effects analysis of influencing factors indicated that the main driving factors of increasing carbon emissions were economic and population growth. Carbon emission intensity was the main contributing factor restraining carbon emissions growth. (2) Indirect effects analysis of influencing factors showed that international and interprovincial trades significantly affected the total carbon emissions. (3) Analysis of the effects of different final demands on the carbon emissions of industrial sector indicated that the increase in carbon emission arising from international and interprovincial trades is mainly concentrated in energy- and carbon-intensive industries. (4) Guangdong had to compromise a certain amount of carbon emissions during the development of its export-oriented economy because of industry transfer arising from the economic globalization, thereby pointing to the existence of the “carbon leakage” problem. At the same time, interprovincial export and import resulted in Guangdong transferring a part of its carbon emissions to other provinces, thereby leading to the occurrence of “carbon transfer.”