Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Energy Production Potentials from Municipal Solid Waste Management in Thailand Through 2050

This study estimated the amounts of municipal solid waste, greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation potential, and energy production potential from waste management in Thailand from 2017–2050. According to a grey forecasting model (GM 1,3), waste generation is predicted to increase at an average rate of 1.15% year–1 and will reach 39.61 M tons in 2050. Four waste management scenarios were investigated including: a baseline scenario, in which waste management practices in 2017 remain unchanged; scenario 1, which includes installation of waste-to-energy incineration plants from 2018–2021; scenario 2, which assumes the waste-to-energy target (900 MWe) is accomplished; and scenario 3 which maximizes waste sorting and material recovery. In the baseline scenario, greenhouse gas emissions will reach 18,972 kt CO2eq and the power production potential will be 179 MWe in 2050. Scenario 2 provides maximum waste disposal reduction, resulting in the greatest greenhouse gas mitigation. Its greenhouse gas emissions are 20% lower than the baseline in 2030, and 47% in 2050. The power production potential in scenario 2 in 2050 (910 MWe) can help prevent 11,756 kt CO2eq of greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel consumption. Scenario 1 provides the smallest greenhouse gas mitigation potential, with only 7% reduction in 2030 compared to the baseline. However, all scenarios can help Thailand meet its Nationally Determined Contributions targets. Findings from this study provide some insights for policy makers and researchers in evaluating waste management and climate policies.