A Hybrid Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model and ENSO Prediction Study

被引：0
|
作者：
Wu A. [1 ,2 ]
Ni Y. [1 ,3 ]
机构：
[1] Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University
[2] Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 7, Nanhai Road, Qingdao
[3] Chinese Acad. of Meteorol. Sciences, No. 46, Baishiqiao Road, Beijing
来源：
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences | 1999年 / 16卷 / 3期
关键词：
Ensemble forecast; ENSO prediction; Hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model; Seasonal dependence;
D O I：
10.1007/s00376-999-0019-y
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model is designed, which consists of a global AGCM and a simple anomaly ocean model in the tropical Pacific. Retroactive experimental predictions initiated in each season from 1979 to 1994 are performed. Analyses indicate that: (1) The overall predictive capability of this model for SSTA over the central-eastern tropical Pacific can reach one year, and the error is not larger than 0.8°C. (2) The prediction skill depends greatly on the season when forecasts start. However, the phenomenon of SPB (spring prediction barrier) is not found in the model. (3) The ensemble forecast method can effectively improve prediction results. A new initialization scheme is discussed.
引用
收藏
页码：405 / 418
页数：13
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