A Hybrid Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model and ENSO Prediction Study

A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model is designed, which consists of a global AGCM and a simple anomaly ocean model in the tropical Pacific. Retroactive experimental predictions initiated in each season from 1979 to 1994 are performed. Analyses indicate that f (1) The overallpredictive capability of this model for SSTA over the central-eastern tropical Pacific can reach oneyear, and the error is not larger than 0.8℃. (2) The prediction skill depends greatly on the seasonwhen forecasts start.However, the phenomenon of SPB (spring prediction barrier) is not found inthe model.(3) The ensemble forecast method can effectively improve prediction results. A newinitialization scheme is discussed.