Research on the impact of circular economy on total factor carbon productivity in China

Circular economy plays an important role in carbon emissions reduction. To understand how the development of circular economy in China improve the carbon productivity is of great significance to realize China’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. Due to the late introduction of the concept of carbon productivity, only a few studies have preliminarily analyzed the impact of the overall development of circular economy on carbon productivity at the macro level, but they ignored the different impact of different dimensions of the circular economy indicator system on carbon productivity at the micro level. In this context, this paper analyzes the impact of circular economy on carbon productivity by constructing an index evaluation system for the carbon reduction effect of circular economy through the two dimensions of resource efficiency and economic benefits and using the total factor carbon productivity measured by the DEA-Malmquist model and also analyzes the untapped potential of circular economy in different regions, which is expected to provide policy reference for how to achieve green and sustainable development in China under low-carbon constraints. Results show that first, the development of circular economy positively affects carbon productivity, and such promotion effect gradually strengthens with time. Meanwhile, the proposed indices demonstrate varying effects, with the resource efficiency indices outperforming the economic efficiency indices. Second, the varying degrees of circular economy development across regions lead to variations in the carbon reduction effect of circular economy on carbon productivity. Specifically, compared with the eastern and central regions, the western region shows the greater untapped potential of the circular economy. Identifying priorities for circular economy development, developing a circular economy in accordance with the local conditions, developing and utilizing advanced carbon emissions reduction technologies, and opening up further to the outside world have important theoretical value and practical significance for exploring the carbon emission reduction effect of circular economy.