The impact of the circular economy pilot policy on green total factor productivity: evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

The circular economy pilot policy is an important initiative to achieve efficient resource utilization and environmental protection in China. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore its impact on green total factor productivity. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2019, this paper constructs a multi-temporal difference-in-difference model to comprehensively examine the impact of circular economy pilot policies on green total factor productivity. The results show that: (1) The circular economy pilot policy has significantly increased green total factor productivity. In terms of factor productivity, the pilot circular economy policy promoted the productivity of labor, energy, land, desired output, and non-desired output factors, but suppressed the productivity of capital factors. (2) Advanced and rationalized industrial structure, cleaner energy consumption and electricity production structure, and neutral technological advances are the channels through which the circular economy pilot policy can enhance green total factor productivity. (3) The facilitating effect of the circular economy pilot policy on green total factor productivity is more significant in the eastern region, non-resource-rich regions, regions with high recycling rates, and regions with high levels of information technology. (4) There is a clear synergy between the carbon emissions trading policy and the circular economy pilot policy in promoting green total factor productivity. The findings of this paper provide policy insights to stimulate the green growth effects of the circular economy pilot policy.