Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclogenesis over the North Indian Ocean

Over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and particularly over the Bay of Bengal (BoB), the post-monsoon season from October to December (OND) are known to produce tropical cyclones, which cause damage to life and property over India and many neighbouring countries. The variability of frequency of cyclonic disturbances (CDs) during OND season is found to be associated with variability of previous large-scale features during monsoon season from June to September, which is used to develop seasonal forecast model of CDs frequency over the BoB and NIO based on principal component regression (PCR). Six dynamical/thermodynamical parameters during previous June–August, viz., (i) sea surface temperature (SST) over the equatorial central Pacific, (ii) sea level pressure (SLP) over the southeastern equatorial Indian Ocean, (iii) meridional wind over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean at 850 hPa, (iv) strength of upper level easterly, (v) strength of monsoon westerly over North Indian Ocean at 850 hPa, and (vi) SST over the northwest Pacific having significant and stable relationship with CDs over BoB in subsequent OND season are used in PCR model for a training period of 40 years (1971–2010) and the latest four years (2011–2014) are used for validation. The PCR model indicates highly significant correlation coefficient of 0.77 (0.76) between forecast and observed frequency of CD over the BoB (NIO) for the whole period of 44 years and is associated with the root mean square error and mean absolute error ≤ 1 CD. With respect to the category forecast of CD frequency over BoB and NIO, the Hit score is found to be about 63% and the Relative Operating Curves (ROC) for above and below normal forecast is found to be having much better forecast skill than the climatology. The PCR model performs very well, particularly for the above and below normal CD year over the BoB and the NIO, during the test period from 2011 to 2014.