Empirical research on carrying capacity of human settlement system in Dalian City, Liaoning Province, China

Using the theories of population carrying capacity and ecological elasticity in other fields for reference, the connotation of regional human settlement system was defined from the viewpoint of the complex relationship among the factors such as regional population, resources, environment and economic and social development in the context of China’s rapid urbanization. Then the concept and characterization methods of the regional human settlement carrying capacity were proposed by means of population scale. Furthermore, a model of carrying capacity-pressure-state-response (CPSR) on regional human settlement system was established by referencing pressure-state-response (PSR) model, and the Catastrophe Theory was introduced to determine the corresponding standards of multi-criteria programming and evaluation. Taking Dalian City, Liaoning Province, China as an example, an empirical analysis on evaluation of human settlement system from 2000 to 2012 was carried out. The results showed that the carrying capacity of human settlement system in Dalian was fluctuating between 9.6 × 106 to 10 × 106 persons with a quantitative stage of the dynamic regulation. During the research period the load index of human settlement system in Dalian dropped from 0.96 to 0.84 with a lower pressure of human settlement system than the national average level. And the emergency response grades of human settlement system in Dalian were kept in grade II (orange warning) or grade III (yellow warning). Human settlement system of Dalian was in slight security state as a whole, but the load had a tendency of increase in recent years. The related departments should pay close attention to regional human settlement system and take active measures to improve human settlement by both intensity control and total quantity control. By comparison, analysis and discussion, it was considered that the results were basically accordded with the current situations of human settlement in Dalian, and the evaluation results were more reliable, visualized and easily applied in practice. Therefore, the above-mentioned concepts, characterization and evaluation methods of the regional human settlement system and carrying capacity could provide a new thought and method for quantitative evaluation of human settlement.