Modeling individual-tree mortality in Pyrenean oak (Quercus pyrenaica Willd.) stands

• Tree mortality is an important process in forest ecosystem dynamics and is one of the least understood phenomena, because of the complex interactions between different environmental stresses, minimal understanding of whole-plant mortality processes, and a chronic shortage of data.• A multilevel logistic regression model was developed for predicting the probability of mortality in individual trees with the objective of improving long-term planning in Spanish pyrenean oak forests. The data came from one 10-year re-measurement of the permanent plot network belonging to the Spanish National Forest Inventory distributed throughout north-west Spain.• The probability of mortality decreased with increasing individual diameter at breast height and increasing ratio of the height of subject tree to the dominant height of the sample plot. The resulting mortality model was evaluated using an independent data set from a region close to the study area.• The regeneration of pyrenean oak generally takes place through stump and/or root sprouting; so stand dynamics differ from those of others species. The model developed is expected to improve the accuracy of stand forecasts in northwest Spain.