Rebound effect of carbon emissions of new energy vehicle consumption: a case study of Beijing

The promotion and use of new energy vehicles are important means to reduce carbon emissions. However, its effect is usually affected by the rebound effect. The current research does not consider the impact of the substitution effect of new energy vehicles on traditional fuel vehicles to the carbon emission rebound effect, including its situation in different scenarios. This paper considers the purchase stage, use stage of the new energy vehicles and constructs a comprehensive two-stage almost ideal demand system model. The rebound effect of carbon emissions from 2014 to 2019 and different scenarios from 2020 to 2030 is quantified. The results show that the rebound effect of carbon emissions without car purchase subsidies is 4%–9% less than that with car purchase subsidies in the corresponding year. In the prediction results of the rebound effect under different future scenarios, the values of partial rebound effects are more than 80%, and the values of backfire effects are less than 115%, which indicates that the rebound effect of carbon emissions shows a convergence trend. In the future, the rebound effect of carbon emissions will show a trend of convergence. When the total vehicle sales remain unchanged, the replacement proportion of new energy vehicles reaches 85%, and there is no subsidy policy, the rebound effect of carbon emissions is the smallest, indicating that this scenario is the most favorable for reducing carbon emissions and reducing environmental pressure.