Epidemic spreading in modular time-varying networks

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作者
Matthieu Nadini
Kaiyuan Sun
Enrico Ubaldi
Michele Starnini
Alessandro Rizzo
Nicola Perra
机构
[1] New York University Tandon School of Engineering,Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering
[2] Northeastern University,Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio
[3] ISI Foundation,technical Systems
[4] Universitat de Barcelona,Institute for Scientific Interchange
[5] Universitat de Barcelona,Departament de Física Fondamental
[6] Politecnico di Torino,Universitat de Barcelona Institute of Complex Systems (UBICS)
[7] University of Greenwich,Dipartimento di Elettronica e Telecomunicazioni
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摘要
We investigate the effects of modular and temporal connectivity patterns on epidemic spreading. To this end, we introduce and analytically characterise a model of time-varying networks with tunable modularity. Within this framework, we study the epidemic size of Susceptible-Infected-Recovered, SIR, models and the epidemic threshold of Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible, SIS, models. Interestingly, we find that while the presence of tightly connected clusters inhibits SIR processes, it speeds up SIS phenomena. In this case, we observe that modular structures induce a reduction of the threshold with respect to time-varying networks without communities. We confirm the theoretical results by means of extensive numerical simulations both on synthetic graphs as well as on a real modular and temporal network.
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