Temperature effects on rural household outmigration: Evidence from China

Changes in temperature extremes under climate change are expected to affect outmigration in rural areas through an agricultural mechanism. This study examines the effect of rising temperatures on rural outmigration in Jiangxi Province, China, a cold region where agricultural livelihoods predominate. The study contributes novel results by using large-scale household smart meter data to identify rural household outmigration. These data are combined with temperature data from meteorological stations to reveal a nonlinear effect of temperature on rural outmigration through an agricultural livelihood mechanism. The study projects the influence of rising temperatures on rural outmigration based on two representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results of the study show that extremely low temperatures significantly increase rural outmigration in Jiangxi Province, China, a rice-growing region. Moreover, projections show that warmer temperatures will improve rice yields and diminish outmigration. According to the medium-term (2041–2060) and long-term (2061–2080) prediction results, rural household outmigration will decrease by 0.55–1.40% and 1.23–2.96%, respectively. These findings contribute to research showing that rising global temperatures affect rural areas in cold regions by improving crop yields and diminishing outmigration.