FDG PET biomarkers for prediction of survival in metastatic melanoma prior to anti-PD1 immunotherapy

Our aim was to analyse whether biomarkers extracted from baseline 18F-FDG PET before anti-PD1 treatment contribute to prognostic survival information for early risk stratification in metastatic melanoma. Fifty-six patients, without prior systemic treatment, BRAF wild type, explored using 18F-FDG PET were included retrospectively. Our primary endpoint was overall survival (OS). Total metabolic tumoral volume (MTV) and forty-one IBSI compliant parameters were extracted from PET. Parameters associated with outcome were evaluated by a cox regression model and when significant helped build a prognostic score. Median follow-up was 22.1 months and 21 patients died. Total MTV and long zone emphasis (LZE) correlated with shorter OS and served to define three risk categories for the prognostic score. For low, intermediate and high risk groups, survival rates were respectively 91.1% (IC 95 80–1), 56.1% (IC 95 37.1–85) and 19% (IC 95 0.06–60.2) and hazard ratios were respectively 0.11 (IC 95 0.025–0.46), P = 0.0028, 1.2 (IC 95 0.48–2.8), P = 0.74 and 5.9 (IC 95 2.5–14), P < 0.0001. To conclude, a prognostic score based on total MTV and LZE separated metastatic melanoma patients in 3 categories with dramatically different outcomes. Innovative therapies should be tested in the group with the lowest prognosis score for future clinical trials.