ENSO and greenhouse warming

被引：0
|
作者：
Cai W. [1 ,2 ]
Santoso A. [3 ]
Wang G. [1 ]
Yeh S.-W. [4 ]
An S.-I. [5 ]
Cobb K.M. [6 ]
Collins M. [7 ]
Guilyardi E. [8 ,9 ]
Jin F.-F. [10 ]
Kug J.-S. [11 ]
Lengaigne M. [8 ]
Mcphaden M.J. [12 ]
Takahashi K. [13 ]
Timmermann A. [14 ]
Vecchi G. [15 ]
Watanabe M. [16 ]
Wu L. [2 ]
机构：
[1] CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, Aspendale, 3195, VIC
[2] Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Ocean University of China, Qingdao
[3] Australian Research Council (ARC), Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney
[4] Department of Environmental Marine Science, Hanyang University, Ansan
[5] Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul
[6] School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, 311 Ferst Drive, Atlanta
[7] College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Streatham Campus, University of Exeter, Exeter
[8] Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentation et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), IRD/UPMC/CNRS/MNHN
[9] NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, Reading
[10] Department of Meteorology, SOEST, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, 96822, HI
[11] School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang
[12] NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, 98115, WA
[13] Instituto Geofísico del Perú, Lima
[14] IPRC, Department of Oceanography, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, 96822, HI
[15] Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, Princeton, 08540-6649, NJ
[16] Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa
来源：
Nature Climate Change | 2015年 / 5卷 / 9期
基金：
日本学术振兴会; 澳大利亚研究理事会; 英国自然环境研究理事会; 新加坡国家研究基金会; 美国国家科学基金会;
关键词：
D O I：
10.1038/nclimate2743
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant climate phenomenon affecting extreme weather conditions worldwide. Its response to greenhouse warming has challenged scientists for decades, despite model agreement on projected changes in mean state. Recent studies have provided new insights into the elusive links between changes in ENSO and in the mean state of the Pacific climate. The projected slow-down in Walker circulation is expected to weaken equatorial Pacific Ocean currents, boosting the occurrences of eastward-propagating warm surface anomalies that characterize observed extreme El Niño events. Accelerated equatorial Pacific warming, particularly in the east, is expected to induce extreme rainfall in the eastern equatorial Pacific and extreme equatorward swings of the Pacific convergence zones, both of which are features of extreme El Niño. The frequency of extreme La Niña is also expected to increase in response to more extreme El Niños, an accelerated maritime continent warming and surface-intensified ocean warming. ENSO-related catastrophic weather events are thus likely to occur more frequently with unabated greenhouse-gas emissions. But model biases and recent observed strengthening of the Walker circulation highlight the need for further testing as new models, observations and insights become available. © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited.
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页码：849 / 859
页数：10
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