Can China achieve its CO2 emission reduction targets in agriculture sector? Evidence from technological efficiency analysis

The objective of this paper is to conduct a comparative analysis of the real and potential CO2 emission intensity in China’s agricultural sector. In order to perform this goal, this paper combines the concept of the meta-frontier efficiency and the directional distance function to process empirical work. This methodology allows for the incorporation of technological heterogeneities into the efficiency analysis and implementation results of increment in desirable outputs and reduction in undesirable outputs. Empirical results indicate that the average total-factor CO2 emission efficiency is 0.481 and has a slight downward trend over the studied period, which is lower than that of the whole industry in China. CO2 emission efficiency and the technology gap ratios among different regions in China’s agricultural sector show different space–time characteristics. A comparative analysis is applied in this study to verify the relationship between the actual and potential CO2 intensities, whose average values are, respectively, 0.1972 and 0.0816 Mtc/billion yuan RMB. Research shows that there exists huge space for CO2 intensity reduction. Meanwhile, the major contributor to the potential CO2 intensity reduction varies across different regions, as managerial failure for most provinces in the eastern and central regions and technology gap in the western regions.