Net anthropogenic phosphorus inputs: spatial and temporal variability in the Chesapeake Bay region

We estimated net anthropogenic phosphorus inputs (NAPI) in the Chesapeake Bay region. NAPI is an index of phosphorus pollution potential. NAPI was estimated by quantifying all phosphorus inputs and outputs for each county. Inputs include fertilizer applications and non-food phosphorus uses, while trade of food and feed can be an input or an output. The average of 1987, 1992, 1997, and 2002 NAPI for individual counties ranged from 0.02 to 78.46 kg P ha−1 year−1. The overall area-weighted average NAPI for 266 counties in the region was 4.52 kg P ha−1 year−1, indicating a positive net phosphorus input that can accumulate in the landscape or can pollute the water. Large positive NAPI values were associated with agricultural and developed land cover. County area-weighted NAPI increased from 4.43 to 4.94 kg P ha−1 year−1 between 1987 and 1997 but decreased slightly to 4.86 kg P ha−1 year−1 by 2002. Human population density, livestock unit density, and percent row crop land combined to explain 83% of the variability in NAPI among counties. Around 10% of total NAPI entering the Chesapeake Bay watershed is discharged into Chesapeake Bay. The developed land component of NAPI had a strong direct correlation with measured phosphorus discharges from major rivers draining to the Bay (R2 = 0.81), however, the correlation with the simple percentage of developed land was equally strong. Our results help identify the sources of P in the landscape and evaluate the utility of NAPI as a predictor of water quality.