Prediction methods of train operation conflict for high-speed railway

The exact definition of high-speed railway conflict is given and the train operation conflicts are classified into 7 types in this paper. Train operation conflict refers to the mutual restraint and the opposite effect when two trains will need to use the same technical equipment or train path as well as the train deviates from operational plan. There are many uncertainties in the train operation process due to the disturbances from the equipment factors, human factors and external environmental factors. The uncertainties such as uncertain running time in the section and the uncertain stopping time in the station make the time that technical equipment and other resources occupied by trains have uncertainties. Finally, a conflict prediction method and the process by train operation status derivation and conflict judging circularly are proposed. According to the real-time train running status, the follow-up train running status can be obtained by calculating and derivation. Then, the conflict judging methods are used in determining whether there are train conflicts. The level and the probability of the conflicts can also be known at the same time. © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2010.