Uncertain SEIAR model for COVID-19 cases in China

被引：0
|
作者：
Lifen Jia
Wei Chen
机构：
[1] Capital University of Economics and Business,School of Management and Engineering
来源：
Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making | 2021年 / 20卷
关键词：
Uncertainty theory; Uncertain differential equation; Uncertain SEIAR model; COVID-19; Parameter estimation;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Asymptomatic-Removed (SEIAR) epidemic model is one of most frequently used epidemic models. As an application of uncertain differential equations to epidemiology, an uncertain SEIAR model is derived which considers the human uncertainty factors during the spread of an epidemic. The parameters in the uncertain epidemic model are estimated with the numbers of COVID-19 cases in China, and a prediction to the possible numbers of active cases is made based on the estimates.
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页码：243 / 259
页数：16
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