Contribution of obesity and cardiometabolic risk factors in developing cardiovascular disease: a population-based cohort study

This study aims to assess the effects of central and general adiposity on development of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) mediated by cardiometabolic risk factors and to analyze their degree of dependency for mediating their effects. To this end, data from the the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study cohort with 6280 participants were included in this study. The hazard ratios were calculated using a 2-stage regression model in the context of a survival model. Systolic blood pressure (BP), total serum cholesterol, and fasting plasma glucose were designated as mediators. Assessing the interactions revealed that BP was the most important mediator for general ( (HRNIE: 1.11, 95% CI 1.17–1.24) and central obesity (CO) (HRNIE: 1.11, 95% CI 1.07–1.15) with 60% and 36% proportion of the effects mediated in the total population, respectively. The proportion of mediated risk for all three metabolic risk factors was 46% (95% CI 31–75%) for overweight, 66% (45–100%) for general obesity and 52% (39–87%) for central obesity. BP was the most important mediator for overweight and central obesity in men, comprising 29% and 36% of the risk, respectively. The proportion of the risk mediated through all three metabolic risk factors in women was 23% (95% CI 13–50%) for overweight, 36% (21–64%) for general obesity and 52% (39–87%) for central obesity. Based on the results of this study, cardiometabolic mediators have conciliated more than 60% of the adverse effects of high BMI on CVDs in men. Controlling the metabolic risk factors in women does not efficiently contribute to decreasing CVDs as effectively.