Decadal variation of the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode and its influence on the East Asian trough

We analyze the decadal variation of the stratosphere–troposphere coupled system around the year 2000 by using the NCEP reanalysis-2 data. Specifically, the relationship between the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM) and the tropospheric East Asian trough is investigated in order to find the effective stratospheric signals during cold air outbreaks in China. Statistical analyses and dynamic diagnoses both indicate that after 2000, increased stratospheric polar vortex disturbances occur and the NAM is mainly in negative phase. The tropospheric polar areas are directly affected by the polar vortex, and in the midlatitudes, the Ural blocking high and East Asian trough are more active, which lead to enhanced cold air activities in eastern and northern China. Further investigation reveals that under this circulation pattern, downward propagations of negative NAM index are closely related to the intensity variation of the East Asian trough. When negative NAM anomalies propagate down to the upper troposphere and reach a certain intensity (standardized NAM index less than–1), they result in apparent reinforcement of the East Asian trough, which reaches its maximum intensity about one week later. The northerly wind behind the trough transports cold air southward and eastward, and the range of influence and the intensity are closely associated with the trough location. Therefore, the NAM index can be used as a measure of the signals from the disturbed stratosphere to give some indication of cold air activities in China.