Decomposition and decoupling analysis of multi-sector CO2 emissions based on LMDI and Tapio models: Case study of Henan Province, China

The peak carbon dioxide emissions at the provincial level is the foundation for achieving the national target of carbon emission peak, thus it is important to analyze the characteristics of provincial CO2 emissions. However, there is a lack of comprehensive analysis and research on quantifying the contributions of the driving factors to decoupling at the provincial level. Therefore, taking Henan Province as the research object, this study establishes the decoupling effort model by combining the traditional LMDI model and Tapio model based on compiling the CO2 emission inventories from 2006 to 2019. The results showed that total CO2 emissions increased from 2006 to 2011, and decreased after 2011 in Henan Province. Raw coal was the primary fuel source of Henan’s CO2 emissions, and the sector of “power and heat production” was the major industrial source, accounting for above 45% of the total emissions. Economic output and energy intensity were the major factors promoting and restraining the increase in Henan’s CO2 emissions, respectively. In terms of the decoupling state, Henan achieved the transformation from weak decoupling to strong decoupling from 2006 to 2019. Industry presented a strong decoupling condition, while weak decoupling was detected in the agriculture sector during the study period. The changing trend of energy intensity decoupling effort was consistent with that of total decoupling effort, indicating that energy intensity is a crucial factor in achieving decoupling. This study is helpful to grasp the CO2 emission characteristics of Henan Province and provide the theoretical basis for formulating emission mitigation measures of peak carbon dioxide emissions in Henan and other provinces.