Determining the Required Size of a Military Training Pipeline

This paper addresses the problem of deciding how many positions to set aside, in a military establishment, for recruits undergoing training. We assume a cap on total strength, and thus must select a ratio between positions in the force's training pipeline versus its trained establishment. We develop a Markovian model of the training pipeline, with parameters derived from historical Human Resources data. Through Monte Carlo simulation we may then predict how often a given ratio will be sufficient to generate the required trained force, as well as how much surplus trained personnel it is expected to generate. Our modelling results have informed ongoing initiatives to optimize the force mix and structure of the Canadian Armed Forces.