Variability of ENSO Forecast Skill in 2-Year Global Reforecasts Over the 20th Century

被引：14

作者：

Weisheimer, Antje ^{[1
,2
]}

Balmaseda, Magdalena A. ^{[1
]}

Stockdale, Tim N. ^{[1
]}

Mayer, Michael ^{[1
,3
]}

Sharmila, S. ^{[4
,5
]}

Hendon, Harry ^{[5
,6
]}

Alves, Oscar ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF, Reading, Berks, England

[2] Univ Oxford, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci NCAS, Dept Phys, Oxford, England

[3] Univ Vienna, Dept Meteorol & Geophys, Vienna, Austria

[4] Univ Southern Queensland, Ctr Appl Climate Sci, Toowoomba, Qld, Australia

[5] Bur Meteorol, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

[6] Monash Univ, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2022年 / 49卷 / 10期

基金：

奥地利科学基金会;

关键词：

ENSO predictability; seasonal forecasting; climate variability; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE; EL-NINO; PREDICTABILITY; PREDICTION; OSCILLATION; UNCERTAINTY; PROGRESS;

D O I：

10.1029/2022GL097885

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

In order to explore temporal changes of predictability of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a novel set of global biennial climate reforecasts for the historical period 1901-2010 has been generated using a modern initialized coupled forecasting system. We find distinct periods of enhanced long-range skill at the beginning and at the end of the twentieth century, and an extended multi-decadal epoch of reduced skill during the 1930s-1950s. Once the forecast skill extends beyond the first spring barrier, the predictability limit is much enhanced and our results provide support for the feasibility of skillful ENSO forecasts up to 18 months. Changes in the mean state, variability (amplitude), persistence, seasonal cycle and predictability suggest that multi-decadal variations in the dynamical characteristics of ENSO rather than the data coverage and quality of the observations have primarily driven the reported non-monotonic skill modulations.

引用

页数：12

共 50 条

[1] Specialization and the skill premium in the 20th century
Mitchell, MF
[J]. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW, 2005, 46 (03) : 935 - 955
[2] Contrasting El Nino-La Nina Predictability and Prediction Skill in 2-Year Reforecasts of the Twentieth Century
Sharmila, S.
Hendon, H.
Alves, O.
Weisheimer, A.
Balmaseda, M.
[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2023, 36 (05) : 1269 - 1285
[3] Forms and subannual variability of nitrogen and phosphorus loading to global river networks over the 20th century
Vilmin, Lauriane
Mogollon, Jose M.
Beusen, Arthur H. W.
Bouwman, Alexander F.
[J]. GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE, 2018, 163 : 67 - 85
[4] Global economic impacts of climate variability and change during the 20th century
Estrada, Francisco
Tol, Richard S. J.
Botzen, Wouter J. W.
[J]. PLOS ONE, 2017, 12 (02):
[5] Spectral variability of η Carinae in the 20th century
Damineli, A
Viotti, R
Kaufer, A
Stahl, O
Wolf, B
de Araújo, FX
[J]. ETA CARINAE AT THE MILLENNIUM, 1999, 179 : 196 - 199
[6] Simulated variability in the mean atmospheric meridional circulation over the 20th century
Mantsis, Damianos F.
Clement, Amy C.
[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2009, 36
[7] Optical standards over the 20th century
Baker, LR
[J]. JOURNAL OF OPTICS A-PURE AND APPLIED OPTICS, 1999, 1 : 776 - 778
[8] On the mechanisms of decadal variability of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation over the 20th century
Yi, Daling Li
Zhang, Liping
Wu, Lixin
[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS, 2015, 120 (09) : 6114 - 6129
[9] 20TH CENTURY VARIABILITY IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SST
Lluch-Belda, Daniel
del Monte Luna, Pablo
Lluch-Cota, Salvador E.
[J]. CALIFORNIA COOPERATIVE OCEANIC FISHERIES INVESTIGATIONS REPORTS, 2009, 50 : 147 - 154
[10] Variability in seasonal forecast skill of Northern Hemisphere winters over the twentieth century
O'Reilly, Christopher H.
Heatley, James
MacLeod, Dave
Weisheimer, Antje
Palmer, Tim N.
Schaller, Nathalie
Woollings, Tim
[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2017, 44 (11) : 5729 - 5738

← 1 2 3 4 5 →