Spatial modeling of forest stand susceptibility to logging operations

The susceptibility of residual, non-harvested, live trees to damage caused by the harvesting of other nearby trees has received moderate attention over the last four decades through observational studies prompted by concerns over ecological and economic consequences of logging operations. We developed models to predict the potential level of damage to residual trees that could be caused by selective timber harvesting. Three machine-learning methods, i.e., classification and regression tree (CART), random forest (RF), and boosted regression tree (BRT), were assessed for this purpose. Through an observational study of a harvested area in the Hyrcanian forests of Iran, we recorded damage to trees >7.5 cm diameter at breast height along transects and grouped them into three types: (1) scars >100 cm(2), (2) >50% crown removal, and (3) trees leaning >10 degrees. These field observations were associated with the spatially explicit characteristics of the forest stand, i.e., slope angle, slope aspect, altitude, slope length, topographic position index, stand type, stand density, and distance from the nearest roads and skid trails, that were considered as the explanatory variables to the modeling processes. To determine whether the CART, RF, and BRT models performed well in estimating the probability of damage occurrence, they were validated using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUC) curve. The results revealed that the BRT model with AIC = -276 and AUC = 0.89 generated the most accurate spatially explicit distribution map of stand susceptibility to damage from logging operations, followed by RF (AIC = -263 and AUC = 0.87) and CART (AIC = -23 and AUC = 0.62). We found that the spatial extent of residual stand damage was highly influenced by slope terrain and stand density. Our study has practical implications for reorganizing and planning reduced-impact logging operations and provides forest engineers with insights into the utility of machine learning methods in domains of forestry and forest engineering.