Forecasting the supply chain environment for food SMEs in Ireland: A Delphi approach

For long-term planning and strategy development, SME owner/operators need to be aware not only of what is happening at present but also to have an understanding of what might be expected for the future. One group-based technique that may be used to forecast the future is the Delphi technique. Its application to forecasting the supply chain environment in which food SMEs in Ireland operate to 2007 is the subject of this paper. Following an outline of the Delphi technique, the paper presents some of the key findings of the methodology and draws some conclusions on the usefulness of the Delphi technique and on the future supply chain environment for food SMEs in Ireland. These include recognition that the Delphi produced a great quantity of information and provided the researcher with a good understanding of the issues involved. Furthermore, the results of the Delphi technique indicate that developments in the food supply chain environment are creating both opportunities and threats for SMEs. Opportunities are arising in a number of product areas and market sectors whilst threats are arising from increased barriers to entry and exit, greater investment requirements as well as higher operational costs and a greater requirement for more expensive, skilled employees. The net effect of these opportunities and threats will vary by company depending on skills, resources and the ability to change.