Stress transfer in the Tokai subduction zone from the 2009 Suruga Bay earthquake in Japan

被引:24
|
作者
Aoi, S. [1 ]
Enescu, B. [1 ]
Suzuki, W. [1 ]
Asano, Y. [1 ]
Obara, K. [1 ]
Kunugi, T. [1 ]
Shiomi, K. [1 ]
机构
[1] Natl Res Inst Earth Sci & Disaster Prevent, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3050006, Japan
关键词
FAULT; SEISMICITY; CALIFORNIA; RUPTURE; BASIN;
D O I
10.1038/NGEO885
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
Southwestern Japan lies at the boundary between the subducting Philippine Sea plate and the overriding Eurasian plate. A magnitude 8 megathrust earthquake ruptured the Tonankai and Nankai segments in 1944 and 1946, respectively, but the neighbouring Tokai segment of the plate boundary remained locked(1). A large megathrust earthquake in the Tokai region has therefore been expected. In 2009, a magnitude 6.4 earthquake took place in Suruga Bay, within the Philippine Sea subducting plate, close to the Tokai segment. Here, we use a fault-slip model to examine the impact of the stress changes(2) caused by the Suruga Bay event on the Tokai segment. We show that the occurrence rate of plate-boundary seismicity increased following the earthquake. Most of the presumed strongly locked patches of the Tokai segment are located within areas of increased stress. Rupturing of a locked patch-following a threshold level of seismic stress-could trigger the rupture of the entire Tokai segment, leading to a megathrust earthquake.
引用
收藏
页码:496 / 500
页数:5
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