FUZZY SIMULATION FOR INFRASTRUCTURE EFFECTS UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS

In this paper we propose a method for conducting infrastructure effects-based modeling in uncertain environments. Critical infrastructure is composed of intertwining physical and social networks. Events in one network often cascade to other networks creating a domino effect. This cascading effect is not always well understood due to uncertainties in the multiple levels of effect. To account for these uncertainties, we present a method using fuzzy finite state machines (FFSM).