On the Sustainability of the Romanian Pension System in the Light of Population Declining

The paper is focused on the analysis of the demographic risks which affect the social security system. The situation is analyzed based on projections of the population from Romania, for the period of time 2010 - 2060. The population projection was made by an adaptation of a cohort component method. For the projection of the mortality rate was used the Lee-Carter methods. The same method was adapted for the projection of the fertility rates. For the projection of migration has been used an autoregressive integrated moving average model. Based on the data obtained as result of the population projection have been imagined some scenarios, regarding the sustainability of the social security system. These scenarios analyzed the way in which the sustainability of the pension system could be ensure, starting from the regulating role, which the migration may have on the labour market. The results show that the migration is the only solution to sort out the labour market deficit during the next 50 years. According to estimations, the Romanian labour force should be supplemented till 2060 yearly with 200,000 to 500,000 immigrants. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.