Tailoring parameter distributions to specific germplasm: impact on crop model-based ideotyping

Crop models are increasingly used to identify promising ideotypes for given environmental and management conditions. However, uncertainty must be properly managed to maximize the in vivo realizability of ideotypes. We focused on the impact of adopting germplasm-specific distributions while exploring potential combinations of traits. A field experiment was conducted on 43 Italian rice varieties representative of the Italian rice germplasm, where the following traits were measured: light extinction coefficient, radiation use efficiency, specific leaf area at emergence and tillering. Data were used to derive germplasm-specific distributions, which were used to re-run a previous modelling experiment aimed at identifying optimal combinations of plant trait values. The analysis, performed using the rice model WARM and sensitivity analysis techniques, was conducted under current conditions and climate change scenarios. Results revealed that the adoption of germplasm-specific distributions may markedly affect ideotyping, especially for the identification of most promising traits. A re-ranking of some of the most relevant parameters was observed (radiation use efficiency shifted from 4th to 1st), without clear relationships between changes in rankings and differences in distributions for single traits. Ideotype profiles (i.e., values of the ideotype traits) were instead more consistent, although differences in trait values were found.