Are subthreshold alcohol dependence symptoms a risk factor for developing DSM-IV alcohol use disorders? A three-year prospective study of 'diagnostic orphans' in a national sample

Aims: Research suggests that diagnostic orphans (i.e., individuals experiencing only 1-2 criteria for DSM-IV alcohol dependence) may be at increased risk for developing more severe alcohol problems. This study aimed to: (i) investigate the course of diagnostic orphans in the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC), and (ii) explore whether a specific symptom endorsement pattern(s) could identify diagnostic orphans at Wave 1 who remitted or progressed to alcohol dependence at Wave 2. Methods: Current drinkers (n = 15,751) were divided into diagnostic groups at Waves 1 and 2: no-alcohol use disorder (AUD); one-criterion orphans, two-criterion orphans, alcohol abuse, or alcohol dependence. Multinomial logistic regression analysis explored the association between diagnostic status at Wave 1 and Wave 2. Chi-square tests investigated differences in the criteria endorsement patterns of diagnostic orphans. Results: Compared to the no-AUD group, one-criterion orphans at Wave 1 were twice as likely to be in the abuse group and four times more likely to be dependent at Wave 2. Two-criterion orphans were three times more likely to be in the abuse group and eight times more likely to have progressed to dependence. Criterion endorsement patterns of diagnostic orphans at baseline did not significantly differentiate between those who remitted and those who progressed to dependence at follow-up. Conclusions: Like previous research, diagnostic orphans are at increased for developing to more severe alcohol problems. Relying solely on the DSM-IV AUD diagnostic criteria, however, may not be sufficient to identify those diagnostic orphans who are at risk for progressing to dependence. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.