River Runoff and Probabilistic Forecast of the Caspian Sea Level

被引：5

作者：

Bolgov, M. V. ^{[1
]}

Korobkina, E. A. ^{[1
]}

Trubetskova, M. D. ^{[1
]}

Filippova, I. A. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Russian Acad Sci, Water Problems Inst, Ul Gubkina 3, Moscow 119333, Russia

来源：

RUSSIAN METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY | 2018年 / 43卷 / 10期

关键词：

Caspian Sea; water level; inflow; evaporation; Kara-Bogaz-Gol; probabilistic forecast;

D O I：

10.3103/S1068373918100023

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

The main components ofthe Caspian Sea water balance and water level are assessed. Stochastic models of time series of the water balance components are proposed ustng morphometric dependences specified by creating and processing digital elevation models for the flooded areas. The sea level forecast is obtained by the method of simulation modeling based on algorithms for the generation of Markovian random sequences with non-Gaussian marginal distributions.

引用

页码：639 / 645

页数：7

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