Predicted impact of zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) invasion on water clarity in Lake Mendota

Lake Mendota, which is plagued by periodic cyanobacterial blooms, is typical of many lakes in the Laurentian Great Lakes region that are vulnerable to zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) but have yet to be invaded. We coupled removal estimates with chlorophyll production estimates in a dynamic model to predict the likely impact of mussel-mediated removal of phytoplankton on water clarity across a range of hypothetical zebra mussel densities. Models were fit to chlorophyll and temperature data collected biweekly from Lake Mendota during 1977-1993. When we assumed daily epilimnetic circulation, the percentage of days when the chlorophyll concentration exceeded 50 mu g.L-1 was decreased threefold at mussel densities as low as 1000 mussels.m(-2). When we assumed less frequent epilimnetic circulation, the density of mussels required to substantially improve water clarity increased dramatically. We predict that zebra mussel invasion would lead to increased water clarity in Lake Mendota. Cyanobacterial blooms would be reduced but not eliminated. Negative impacts on other lake processes following zebra mussel invasion could outweigh the benefits of lower phytoplankton concentrations.