Management of complex water resources systems: Uncertainties, models and the dimensions of human thinking and experience

Large-scale water resource systems are very dynamic and uncertain, are composed by many interacting components and interface with social, economic and environmental systems which are also very complex and uncertain. With the appearance of modern mathematical theories and computer tools, there are many attempts to represent the behavior of complex water resources systems using formal mathematical theories and computer models aiming to automate the decision making process. While these new tools and technologies can be very useful in the decision making process, there is a growing danger of misuse. The main assertion of this paper is that formal models should not be used as devises that substitute thinking but they should complement and enhance human thinking and experience.