Comparison of loss estimation for various seismic source models: The case of the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake

We compare the distribution of damage to housing caused by the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu (Kobe) earthquake with those estimated for several source models proposed for this earthquake. This comparison aims at identifying source models that can provide loss estimates that are most appropriate for planning emergency response activities just after earthquakes and/or for preparing effective countermeasures for mitigation of future earthquake disasters. The results suggest the necessity of finite-fault slip models that can reproduce or predict accurately strong ground motion within a frequency range closely related to damage. The loss estimation just after earthquakes based on source models can be counted on in areas without dense strong-groundmotion observation networks. Even with the dense networks, source models will also be useful for accurate loss estimation in the immediate vicinity of earthquake source faults.