Testing models of migration and isolation among populations of chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha)

The chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha) is a behaviorally, morphologically, and ecologically variable species distributed over a large geographic range. Although previous genetic surveys have revealed considerable genetic differences among populations with different life history types and from different major river drainages, it is not clear to what degree these genetically distinct populations are connected by low levels of gene Bow. The work described in this paper addresses this question by surveying DNA restriction site variation at six nuclear genes from nine populations encompassing most of the species's North American range, and then attempting to fit the patterns of variation observed at these genes to five different evolutionary models using computer simulations of the coalescent process. Two commonly used constant population size models, one hypothesizing no migration among populations and one hypothesizing equal rates of migration among populations, were found to be statistically inconsistent with the observed patterns of variation. The other three models, which involved either recent divergence among populations coupled with large changes in populations size, unequal migration rates among populations, or selection, were all found to be consistent with the observed patterns of variation. Assuming selective neutrality, these results suggest that either the populations have all descended from a common ancestral population within the last similar to 50,000 years and have all suffered large declines in effective population size since that time, or that they have a more ancient divergence time but are connected by low levels of gene flow. These conclusions rest on the assumption of selective neutrality. With the methods employed, it was not possible to simultaneously test hypotheses of both selective neutrality and population structure.