Earthquake-induced landslide displacement attenuation models and application in probabilistic seismic landslide displacement analysis

A landslide displacement (D-LL) attenuation model has been developed using spectral intensity and a ratio of critical acceleration coefficient to ground acceleration coefficient. In the development of the model, a New Zealand earthquake record data set with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.2 within a source distance of 175 km is used. The model can be used to carry out deterministic landslide displacement analysis, and readily extended to carry out probabilistic seismic landslide displacement analysis. D-LL attenuation models have also been developed by using earthquake source terms, such as magnitude and source distance, that account for the effects of earthquake fault type, source type, and site conditions. Sensitivity analyses show that the predicted D-LL values from the new models are close to those from the Romeo model that was developed from an Italian earthquake record data set. The proposed models are also applied to an analysis of landslide displacements in the Wenchuan earthquake, and a comparison between the predicted and the observed results shows that the proposed models are reliable, and can be confidently used in mapping landslide potential.