Assessment of systemic vulnerability in flood prone areas

This paper deals with the conception, the development and the subsequent validation of an integrated numerical model for the assessment of systemic vulnerability in complex and urbanized areas subject to flood risk. The proposed model, which is based on the studies of Tamura et al. (Eu. J. Oper. Res., 2000) and Pascale et al. (Ad. Geo., 2007) considers vulnerability not as a characteristic of a particular element at risk, but as a peculiarity of a complex territorial system, in which different elements are reciprocally linked in a functional way. Therefore, it facilitates the identification, in selected areas, of the elements that are mainly responsible for functional loss and which thus make the whole system critical. This feature makes the proposed model effectively able to support correct territorial planning and suitable management of an emergency following natural disasters that trigger or remobilize mass movements.