Trends in Dementia Prevalence, Incidence, and Mortality in the United States (2000-2016)

Objectives: The prevalence of dementia has declined in the United States; how this parallels to changes in incidence and mortality, and how improvements in educational attainment may have influences these trends, is not known. Methods: Using the Health and Retirement Study (2000-2016), we estimated logistic regression models to examine trends in dementia prevalence and incidence, and mortality for those with and without dementia. Results: The relative decline was about 2.4% per year for dementia prevalence and 1.9% for dementia incidence. Mortality declined similarly for those with and without dementia. Improved educational attainment accounted for decline in incidence, some of the decline in prevalence, and had a negligible role in mortality. Discussion: The declines in dementia incidence provide evidence that dementia prevalence should continue to decline in the near future. These declines are most likely largely driven by continued improvements in older adult education.