Scenario Analysis of the Diffusion of Fuel Cells in the Residential Sector

A fuel cell is a promising element for saving energy by utilizing waste heat for hot water supply. When assessing the influences of fuel cells in a real world, however, the question is how many fuel cells will be diffused in a region because there are many unpredictable factors, such as national energy policies and consumers' lifestyles. This paper takes a scenario approach to analyzing the environmental impact caused by the diffusion of fuel cells under different social situations. A case study describes three scenarios for estimating the diffusion of solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) for apartment buildings in 2030, in which conjoint analysis is undertaken for quantifying consumers' preferences. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V.